Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors host a high-profile tilt on Tuesday at Chase Center. The Warriors welcome Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks to San Francisco for a battle between playoff-caliber squads. Golden State is 34-13 overall and 21-4 at home, with Dallas entering at 27-20 overall and 12-11 on the road. Sterling Brown (foot) is out for the Mavericks. Klay Thompson (knee) is questionable for the Warriors, with Draymond Green (back), James Wiseman (knee), and Andre Iguodala (hip) ruled out.

Tipoff is at 10 p.m. ET in San Francisco. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a three-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 210.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds. Before locking in any Warriors vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 15 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 58-32 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Mavs, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Mavs vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Mavericks spread: Warriors -3
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks over-under: 210.5 points
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks money line: Warriors -150, Mavericks +130
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 13-10 against the spread in road games
  • GSW: The Warriors are 15-8-2 against the spread in home games

Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

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Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas is excellent in avoiding turnovers on offense, committing only 12.7 giveaways per game. The Mavericks are also excellent in 2-point shooting, making 54.1 percent of shots, and Dallas is elite on the defensive end. The Mavericks rank in the top five of the NBA in defensive rating, giving up 106.1 points per 100 possessions. Dallas leads the league in 3-point prevention, allowing only 10.7 triples per game, and the Mavericks are in the top eight in 3-point percentage (33.6 percent) and free-throw attempts allowed (20.0 per game). 

Dallas is No. 3 in the NBA in defensive rebound rate, securing 74.3 percent of available rebounds, and opponents generate only 12.5 second-chance points per game against the Mavericks. Dallas allows only 23.1 assists per game, a top-10 figure, and the Warriors are No. 29 in the NBA in turnovers committed on offense.

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State is the NBA’s best defensive team, leading the league in myriad categories. Opponents are scoring only 102.6 points per 100 possessions against the Warriors, while shooting only 42.7 percent from the field and 32.9 percent from 3-point range. Golden State leads the league in assists allowed, giving up fewer than 22 per game, and the Warriors are in the top six of the NBA in defensive rebound rate, turnover creation rate, steal rate and points allowed in the paint. 

On offense, the Warriors are also quite strong, scoring more than 1.1 points per possession. Golden State leads the NBA in assists (27.5 per game) and assist percentage (68.9 percent), with a top-tier shooting profile. The Warriors have a top-five true shooting percentage, with the No. 3 mark in 2-point shooting (55.6 percent) and a top-10 mark in field-goal percentage (46.3 percent). Golden State also excels in transition, producing 14.7 fast-break points per game.

How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 218 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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